Dan Ariely

2 years ago on April 29th 2007 I turned 40 and at the same day submitted the final draft of Predictably Irrational to my editor.

It has been an incredible journey, very unexpected, and much more exciting than I imagined.

A few weeks ago I finished writing the expanded version of Predictably Irrational, and today I should get the first copy from the printer.

Irrationally yours

Dan

Finally, we finished all the videos for Predictably Irrational!

It was lots of fun to do them and Matthew Duckworth and Laura Brinn did a wonderful job!  Many many thanks
To get the videos on iTunes use this link
Or you can see them on the demos page of this site

I had a plan of having one video per chapter — and I still have this plan.  So far we are at chapter 9

February 19th was the one-year anniversary for the publication of Predictably Irrational.

To celebrate I called the chef at Rue Cler — Jason Bissey — and asked him to make an irrational dinner for us.

Here is what he came up with:
As soon as we sat at the table they gave us the check and thanked us for coming — asking us to come again soon.

Next, we each got a randomly chosen dessert accompanied by cappuccino & espresso served in wine glasses.

Jason stopped by a few minutes later, spilled some wood chips on the floor, handed me a broom & dustpan and asked me to sweep the floor (which I did, and I did a good job at it).

For the entrée: they asked who didn’t eat seafood and who didn’t eat pork and made sure to give the person who didn’t eat seafood the scallops and the person who didn’t eat pork the pork dish.

The appetizer was next.  It was delicious but a few seconds after I started eating Jason came out of the kitchen and as he walked by, he helped himself to a few of the shoestring onions from my plate and just keept on walking.

Soup and salad were next. We were given large serving spoons to eat the soup with and very, very small forks for the salad.  The server stopped by a few times to make sure that everything tasted horrible and that we were having a miserable time.

At the end, she asked who had the scallops and then said “Well you’ll be needing these” as she handed those who had the scallops an Imodium AD pill in a tiny plastic cup (an Antidiarrheal medicine).

Jason – Thanks a lot. I don’t think we will forget this meal for a long time.

Happy Anniversary –

A year ago today Predictably Irrational was published.

A year ago I gave my first set of Radio and TV talks, and did my first book reading.

It has been an amazing year — I learned a lot and had lots of fun.

Thanks

Dan

Today I am working on an expanded version of my book — I am going to include some ideas about the stock market and some other random ideas

So — here is the summary of 2008 honors for Predictably Irrational

1) “New York Times Best Seller” for Non-fiction

2) Amazon Best Books of 2008, Customers’ Bestsellers: #23

3) Amazon Best Books of 2008, Customers’ Bestsellers in business category: #1

4) Hudson books — #1 book in business category

5) Business Week: The Best Business Books of 2008

6) 100 Notable Books of 2008 (NYT)

7) BNET’s Best Business Books of 2008

8) One of the top 8 Books of 2008 for Church Leaders!

9) Barnes And Noble: Best books of 2008 on Our Modern World

10) Seed Magazine, Book picks for 2008

– not a bad list….

Best

Dan

Dear Irrational,

I am a partner in an asset management company whose purpose is to manage investments for individuals, families, and foundations.  The principles of Predictably Irrational made me think about the effectiveness of each component in our investment process.  My end in mind is: 1) to identify failure ingredients in my investment process and 2) engineer out their removal.
My question follows:

Is ‘falling in love’ with an investment hazardous to one’s financial health? Does ‘falling in love’ with an investment result in predictable behaviors (in me) that lower (or negate) what would otherwise have been an excellent investment performance?

——-

Dear Investor,
We have not done any research directly on this question.  Nevertheless, I suspect that the answer is that we do get attached to investments, that it is not good for us, and that it has the potential to influence our judgment for the worse.

First, regarding ‘falling in love’ with an investment; I think that we would.  What we know about the endowment (ownership) effect is that people tend to fall in love with anything they happen to own (mugs, pens, cars, kids).  Once we have something, it becomes ours and we perceive it as special. As a consequence, we value it more.  I suspect that the same could occur with investments.
On top of that, in the current economy people are feeling like they are in a losing situation (if you don’t feel this way look at your retirement account) but losses in the stock market are not psychologically realized until they are truly realized.  So in people’s desire to hold on to what they have you might suspect that in this economy there is going to be an even stronger tendency to ‘fall in love’ with an investment.
Why is this not good for us?  Because the expected value of investment options are about their future potential and the past is just water under the bridge.

The good news is that you can do something about it, and advise your clients to do the same.  Imagine that at the start of every month you don’t look at your portfolio and instead you design your strategy and market positions as if you started from scratch.  The idea is that if you start from scratch you have a clean past with no commitments to past decisions.  I am not sure if the ‘falling in love’ with an investment sentiment will go away completely but I think this way it will be less powerful.
Irrationally yours
Dan

As it turns out Predictably Irrational was selected by Amazon’s customers as their favorite book for 2008 in the category of Business & Investing. 

It was also selected as #23 in customer favorites across all categories.

I can’t tell you how happy this makes me.
Irrationally yours

Dan