The Upside of Irrationality has been released today in paperback! To celebrate this occasion, I will be releasing videos over the next few months — each discussing one of the chapters.

Here is a look into the introduction:

p.s I just learned that the world is going to end on May 21, so if you want to get the book, do it quickly (and pay with a credit card).

irrationally yours

Dan

The scientific community is increasingly coming to realize how central self-control is to many important life outcomes. We have always known about the impact of socioeconomic status and IQ, but these are factors that are highly resistant to interventions. In contrast, self-control may be something that we can tap into to make sweeping improvements life outcomes.

If you think about the environment we live in, you will notice how it is essentially designed to challenge every grain of our self-control. Businesses have the means and motivation to get us to do things NOW, not later. Krispy Kreme wants us to buy a dozen doughnuts while they are hot; Best Buy wants us to buy a television before we leave the store today; even our physicians want us to hurry up and schedule our annual checkup.

There is not much place for waiting in today’s marketplace. In fact you can think about the whole capitalist system as being designed to get us to take actions and spend money now – and those businesses that are more successful in that do better and prosper (at least in the short term).  And this of course continuously tests our ability to resist temptation and for self-control.

It is in this very environment that it’s particularly important to understand what’s going on behind the mysterious force of self-control.

Several decades ago, Walter Mischel* started investigating the determinants of delayed gratification in children. He found that the degree of self-control independently exerted by preschoolers who were tempted with small rewards (but told they could receive larger rewards if they resisted) is predictive of grades and social competence in adolescence.

A recent study by colleagues of mine at Duke** demonstrates very convincingly the role that self control plays not only in better cognitive and social outcomes in adolescence, but also in many other factors and into adulthood. In this study, the researchers followed 1,000 children for 30 years, examining the effect of early self-control on health, wealth and public safety. Controlling for socioeconomic status and IQ, they show that individuals with lower self-control experienced negative outcomes in all three areas, with greater rates of health issues like sexually transmitted infections, substance dependence, financial problems including poor credit and lack of savings, single-parent child-rearing, and even crime. These results show that self-control can have a deep influence on a wide range of activities.  And there is some good news: if we can find a way to improve self-control, maybe we could do better.

Where does self–control come from?

So when we consider these individual differences in the ability to exert self-control, the real question is where they originate – are they differences in pure, unadulterated ability (i.e., one is simply born with greater self-control) or are these differences a result of sophistication (a greater ability to learn and create strategies that help overcome temptation)?

In other words, are the kids who are better at self control able to control, and actively reduce, how tempted they are by the immediate rewards in their environment (see picture on left), or are they just better at coming up with ways to distract themselves and this way avoid acting on their temptation (see picture on right)?

It may very well be the latter. A hint is found in the videos of the children who participated in Mischel’s experiments. It’s clear that all of the children had a difficult time resisting one immediate marshmallow to get more later. However, we also see that the children most successful at delaying rewards spontaneously created strategies to help them resist temptations. Some children sat on their hands, physically restraining themselves, while others tried to redirect their attention by singing, talking or looking away. Moreover, Mischel found that all children were better at delaying rewards when distracting thoughts were suggested to them. Here is a modern recreation of the original Mischel experiment:

A helpful metaphor is the tale of Ulysses and the sirens. Ulysses knew that the sirens’ enchanting song could lead him to follow them, but he didn’t want to do that.  At the same time he also did not want to deprive himself from hearing their song – so he asked his sailors to tie him to the mast and fill their ears with wax to block out the sound – and so he could hear the song of the sirens but resist their lure. Was Ulysses able to resist temptation (the first path)?  No, but he was able to come up with a very useful strategy that prevented him from acting on his impulses (the second path).  Now, Ulysses solution was particularly clever because he got to hear the song of the sirens but he was unable to act on it.  The kids in Mischel’s experiments did not need this extra complexity, and their strategies were mostly directed at distracting themselves (more like the sailors who put wax in their ears).

It seems that Ulysses and kids ability to exert self-control is less connected to a natural ability to be more zen-like in the face of temptations, and more linked to the ability to reconfigure our environment (tying ourselves to the mast) and modulate the intensity by which it tempts us (filling our ears with wax).

If this is indeed the case, this is good news because it is probably much easier to teach people tricks to deal with self-control issues than to train them with a zen-like ability to avoid experiencing temptation when it is very close to our faces.

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* Mischel W, Shoda Y, Rodriguez MI (1989) Delay of gratification in children. Science. 244:933-938.

** Moffitt TE, Arseneault L, Belsky D, Dickson N, Hancox RJ, Harrington H, Houts R, Poulton R, Roberts B, Ross S, Sears MR, Thomson WM & Caspi A (2011) A gradient of childhood self-control predicts health, wealth and public safety. PNAS. 108:2693-2698.

The original PNAS piece is here

Hello, it’s the anonymous PhD again, back to report what the wisdom of the crowd was on our wedding-planning dilemma.  First, I’d like to thank Dan’s readers for your excellent comments.  Matt and I really appreciate your thoughtfulness.

As the graph illustrates, of the two options I presented, having attendants won out, but not overwhelmingly.  However, the most popular response was to propose a third option.  The most common of these were:

• Have one of Matt’s bothers stand on my side, and the other on his side.
• Have no attendants, but give Matt’s brothers some other role of honor, such as giving toasts or readings.
• Have only groomsmen, and I should not worry what people infer about me.

Now it’s time to let you in on why I was asking for wedding advice on a blog about rationality and decision making.  One motivation was that Dan and I were curious whether Matt’s “wanting” attendants carried more weight than my “not wanting” them.  Many people (55%) said they simply chose the option they themselves prefer, or based on considerations of what is normal/typical (33%) or costly/effortful (31%).  But, some (28%) did say that “wanting” is more important than “not wanting”.  While I understand that feeling, I can’t figure out if it’s rational.  What do you think?

Dan and I also wondered what people’s answers reveal about how they think people should resolve impasses like this. By far, the most common principle mentioned was that people in a relationship should take turns getting their way when it comes to big impasses.  So, in our case, the idea was that since I conceded to Matt’s desire to have a big wedding, he should in turn concede to my desire not to have attendants.

But, we saw some very different principles advocated too, namely:

• People should not take turns getting their preferred outcome – scorekeeping and adversarial thinking are hurtful (though, an alternative method was not explicitly suggested).
• “Halfway” compromises (in this case, for example, a big wedding but no attendants) leave everyone unhappy – a couple should go all the way with one person’s preferences in a given situation.

Personally, one principle that stuck with me (and Matt, too) was brought up by the first commenter, Francesca: that what both of us should be doing is asking, “What will make this wedding great for the other person?” rather than concerning ourselves with our own interests.  I thought this was very wise advice.

For those who are interested, we have ultimately decided to have my three sisters stand up as bridesmaids, and my brother, along with Matt’s brothers, stand up as groomsmen. Having just siblings as attendants avoids the political intricacies of picking friends, and Matt has offered to pay for the bridesmaids’ dresses (since my sisters are broke college students) as well as coordinate the fittings.  My siblings are much more tradition-minded than I am, and they’re excited to be a part of the wedding.

Now that it’s the end of a busy teaching semester, I thought I’d take a moment to share one of my favorite classroom moments from a marketing course I taught some years ago at MIT.

By Arjun Khanna

As the American population ages, the debate about the ethics of physician-assisted suicide for terminal patients becomes more important.

Proponents of legalizing of physician-assisted suicide argue the practice is ethically justifiable because it can alleviate prolonged physical and emotional suffering associated with debilitating terminal illness.  Opponents claim that legally sanctioned lethal prescriptions might destroy any remaining desire to continue living – a sign of society having “given up” on the patient.

Ultimately, these arguments rest on differing opinions regarding the effect of this policy on the patient’s wellbeing.  The challenge, then, is to determine how legalization of physician-assisted suicide would affect the wellbeing of terminally ill patients and their medical decision-making.

Outside of philosophical arguments, examination of an interesting finding regarding physician-assisted suicide – know as “The Oregon Paradox” – can add an interesting dimension to the debate.  The paradox is the finding that when terminal patients in Oregon receive lethal medication (under Oregon’s Death with Dignity Act), they often feel a sense of greater wellbeing and a desire to live longer.  In 2010, of 96 patients requested lethal medication, only 61 actually took it. Even more interesting are the many anecdotal accounts of terminal patients, upon receiving lethal medication, that feel a surge of wellbeing and a desire to persevere through their illness.

Why is this this the case?  Looking at this question from an expected-utility perspective suggests that given the option to terminate their own life, terminal patients will decide how long they want to live by comparing the value they expect to gain from the rest of their lives to the expected intensity of their suffering.  At the point where future utility is expected to be negative – that is, when the patient’s condition becomes so intolerable that living any longer is not worth the cost – the patient would choose to end life if the option were available.

The critical point from this perspective is that patients choose the amount of time they are willing to continue living with their illness, which will depend how quickly they deteriorate.  If the rate of deterioration is slower than expected, then patients should delay terminating their lives; if the rate of deterioration is faster than expected, patients should desire to end their lives quicker.

But now let us say that patients have been prescribed lethal medication and have the option of ending their lives at any point of their choosing.  As before, patients don’t want to choose a time too soon or too distant, but with the power to control the end of their lives they no longer have a reason to err on the side of haste!  The patients can now wake up every day with the comfort of knowing that they do not have to suffer through pain or stress they might find intolerable.

Being given the option to determine the time of our own death can transform patients from powerless victims of their illness to willing survivors of it. Together, the importance of feeling in control and the ability to reduce (but not eliminate) uncertainty about rate of deterioration adds an interesting new dimension to the underlying ethical debate and seems to provide credence to the benefits of legalized physician-assisted suicide.

It is clear is that we need a greater understanding of the decision-making of patients at the end of their lives, and that with this improved understanding we can construct policy to better protect their wellbeing (for an interesting recent movie on this topic see “How to Die in Oregon”).

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References:

Lee, Li Way, 2010.  “The Oregon Paradox” Journal of Socio-Economics.  39(2):204-208.

Turman, S.A., 2007.  The Best Way to Say Goodbye:  A Legal Peaceful Choice at the End of       Life.  Life Transitions Publications.

Wedding planning: A case study in joint decision making

By an anonymous PhD

My fiancé, Matthew, and I are currently planning our wedding, an absolute adventure in joint decision making.  I am learning that even though I am a decision researcher, I know surprisingly little about how to make decisions with another person.

Since both of us greatly value autonomy, in the past if we have had different preferences, we’ve simply done our own thing.  For example, one afternoon while vacationing at Arches National Park last summer, Matt wanted to go on a 7-mile hike, and I wanted to read by the hotel pool.  So, we went our separate ways and did precisely what we each wanted.

But, that doesn’t really work out in the wedding domain.  Obviously, I can’t say, “Well, you can have a big fancy wedding, I’m going to elope.”  Thus, we recently find ourselves repeatedly gridlocked.

Some background:  I am not a fan of weddings in general, and my own is no exception.  I don’t like the pomp and circumstance, I don’t like the symbolism behind a lot of the traditions, and I think it’s a silly thing to spend many thousands of dollars on.  Matthew, on the other hand, is much more sentimental than I am, in a surprising bit of gender-role reversal.  He values the ritual of weddings, and it’s important to him to have a large audience of his friends and family there.

So, while I would prefer to have a small handful of people at a justice-of-the-peace style affair, we’re planning a traditional wedding and reception for 150 guests because it is important to Matthew, and Matthew is important to me.  Fine – one bit of joint decision making solved.

But: one decision point has not been so easily solved.  Matt wants to have attendants (i.e., groomsmen, bridesmaids) so that his brothers can be his groomsmen; Matt was a groomsman at his brothers’ weddings, and thinks his brothers will feel honored at being selected.  But, I really don’t want to have attendants, I think because it’s such a clear marker of a typical, traditional wedding.  Plus, I then have to choose bridesmaid dresses, theme colors, and the actual bridesmaids (the politics of which are arguably much more complicated when choosing female attendants vs. males).

One option we entertained was to have groomsmen but no bridesmaids, but this is unpalatable because I’m worried that everyone will infer that no one would be my bridesmaids. This appears to be a win-lose sort of endgame, rather than those nice win-win solutions exhorted by the negotiation books I’ve read, and I don’t see a way around that. So, the options apparently are:

a)    have both groomsmen and bridesmaids

b)    have neither

Dan proposed that I use his blog as a forum to ask for advice.  So, readers, which of the two options would you advise us to do, and how did you come to that conclusion?  Or, are there other win-win options we haven’t thought of?

Please take our quick survey here and give your thoughts.

So, today is my birthday and this year it is also the wedding day of prince William and Kate.

How do I feel about this?  Well, there is some interesting research showing that when kids have their birthday on a special day (Christmas, new year etc), they are likely to feel less special and suffer in terms of their confidence and social fit.

I was wondering if this would also happen to me, but then one of my friends made me realize that I need to be less selfish and also consider how this joint celebration might affect the well-being of prince William and Kate.

I do hope that they will continue to feel special despite the selection of their wedding day.

P.S I met the Duke of York earlier in the year and I asked him if the timing of this wedding means that I should be invited – but surprisingly he said “no.”

There’s been plenty of talk lately –in these pages and elsewhere– about a new kind of capitalism. About creating things because they’re good for society. About understanding, as Michael Porter and Mark Kramer suggest (“Creating Shared Value,” HBR January-February 2011), that not all profits are created equal: Profits derived from making the world better are superior to those derived from the consumption of useless, or even harmful, junk.

At the risk of touching the third rail, I propose that getting people to want things they don’t really need may be far more valuable to society than we think.

Imagine that I started a business selling beautiful bottles of air for $10. I’d call them Respirer (res-pir-AY– it’s French!). My advertisements would laud Respirer’s purity, evoking bracing mountain air. (Fewer than 10 parts per trillion of particulate in every bottle!) Celebrities would endorse Respirer’s rejuvenating effects. (Kate Winslet starts every day with Respirer!) In a matter of months, department stores would be selling out, and spas would brag that their saunas piped in pure Respirer air.

Respirer would be a runaway hit. Of course, it would be just air, and in most places you could get all the reasonably high-quality air you wanted free. So how could this clearly useless product have a beneficial effect on the economy? It would motivate people. By hyping Respirer, I’d give consumers something to want, and in order to be able to afford it, they’d have to work. They’d have to be productive.

We often talk about how marketing’s job is to get us to want things and spend our money, sometimes foolishly. But that reflects only marketing’s output. Marketing also creates input: It spurs us to work to earn the money to buy the things we want.

Consider for a moment a world without marketing hype. One in which there’s nothing you really desire beyond what you need to live. There’s nothing your kids want; they don’t bug you every time you’re in the supermarket. How hard would you work in such a world? What would motivate you to work harder?

Now consider our current consumer environment: Multiply the desire for Respirer by thousands of products of varying levels of utility: iPads, leather couches, crystal martini glasses, cars, garden gnomes. It’s like having thousands of little motivational speakers hovering around us.

Suppose I’m a surgeon. Could it be that my desire for Respirer, and all this other stuff, would spur me to work harder? To innovate new procedures that would save lives and also enrich me personally? I suspect it’s very likely.

Let’s be clear. I don’t mean to say that marketing will save our economy. Or that marketing things we don’t need is the key to a prosperous planet. The line is narrow, indeed, between being motivated to work and mortgaging the future (both your own and society’s) to get stuff like bottled air.

Still, as we continue to redefine capitalism, let’s not discount the role of aspiration and the desire for incremental luxuries–things we want but don’t necessarily need. They can fuel productivity and thus have a valuable function in our economy.

Originally published in Harvard Business Review, May 2011.

At the suggestion of my friend, Sarah Szalavitz, I went to http://www.themonastery.org/ and within a few minutes become an ordained minister.

It wasn’t a deep spiritual experience, but the website tells me that in a few weeks I will get a certificate that will allow me to officiate weddings, baptisms, funerals, and blessings. Apparently I will also be able to start my own religion and perhaps most exciting — to absolve people of their sins.

From all of these possible directions and options, I think I would like to start small – baby steps – and maybe try my hand at a wedding or two. My only question is what an irrational wedding ceremony would be like.  Should I give a speech about all the irrational aspects of getting married?  Should I point to the challenges of living together for prolonged periods of time?  What about the irrationalities of having kids?  Or should I take a more optimistic approach and while pointing to the challenges also suggests ways to overcome some of them?

As you can see, I am open to suggestions.

Irrationally yours

Dan

April 15^th — Tax day is upon us, so it’s a perfect time to contemplate a few aspects of taxes.

In the past I’ve written about how I used to think that tax day was a wonderful day of civic engagement – a day to think about how much we make and contribute, what taxes we pay and what services we get in return. Of course, over the years, as my taxes have become more complex, this task becomes one that is less about civic engagement and thoughtfulness, and more about annoyance and frustration. But that’s for another time.

Today I want to talk about the fact that the US tax system makes it very difficult for us to understand how much money we make and how this may actually lead us to spend more money than we really have. Think about it for a moment—do you know your net monthly income?  I suspect you don’t, and I think that the tax system is to blame.

In many other countries, the tax code does not allow for the same level of deductions we have, and because of that for most people the whole amount of taxes is automatically deducted from their paycheck – and this is it.  Now, in this situation when you ask people how much they earn [and yes, in other countries people do actually ask each other what they make] they will tell you their net monthly income – the amount of money that they get to take home at the end of each month. How do they know?  Well, it is the number that is printed in bold letters on their paystub.

Contrast this to the US. In the US, we all know the gross amount that we make a year, but it’s not as clear what our net income is. It’s actually very complex because we get our salary, some of which the employer withholds, and we have no idea what we’ll get back when tax day comes around. We can get back some money (depending on our expenses/deductibles), trends in our stock market portfolio, health care, etc. And we don’t figure this out until April 15^th (if not later) of the following year!

And what are the consequences of knowing our gross yearly income and not much else?  I think it causes us to feel richer than we really are and spend accordingly.  Why would this be the case?  There’s a phenomenon we call the “illusion of money,” which is the idea that we typically pay attention to nominal amounts of money rather than real amounts. For example, the illusion of money means that if inflation is 8%, and you get a 10% raise, you would feel better than if there was no inflation and you got a 3-4% raise. The basic idea is that we pay attention to the nominal amount rather than the purchasing power, and don’t realize what our money is really worth.

In terms of our tax code, this suggests that in the US we focus on our gross yearly income, feel richer than we really are, and consequently end up spending more money. If this is right, it means that changing the structure of deductions could be one way to help people understand how much money they actually have and how they can save more.