Regret
Imagine that you have a flight at 8:00 in the morning. Which would be worse, arriving at the gate, breathless, at 8:02, just after they’ve closed the door, or at 10:00, thanks to a couple unplanned delays in your morning. Obviously, the first scenario would cause far more misery, but why? Either way you’re stuck at the airport until the next flight, eating the same bad, overpriced food, missing whatever you were supposed to do after your planned arrival, whether that’s meetings or a stroll on the beach.
The difference between the two scenarios is the intensity of the regret you would feel—a great amount in the former and a lot less in the latter. As it turns out our happiness frequently depends not on where we are at the moment, but how easily we perceive we might be elsewhere, or in another, better situation. With the missed flight, you’re in the airport either way, but when it’s a close call, you can think of a dozen little things that would have changed the situation, and each one brings a pang of regret. So, the closer we are to this other possibility, what we refer to as counterfactual, the unhappier we become.
While there are plenty of things in life that cause disappointment and aggravation, consider the case of Costis Mitsotakis, a resident of Sodeto, Spain, who was the only person in this 70 household village who did not receive a share of the $950 million lottery payoff. The story is this: every year the homemaker’s association of Sodeto sells tickets to all the residents, and in 2011, their number won first prize (shared with 1,800 other winning tickets, but still an immense payoff for a tiny, economically depressed town). When the townspeople heard the news, they ran outside, and were congratulated over a megaphone by their jubilant mayor. But soon it was discovered that one resident hadn’t bought a ticket—Mr. Mitsotakis, who had moved to Sodeto for a woman with whom things did not work out, was overlooked when the homemakers made their yearly rounds.
In this case, the counterfactual looms incredibly and painfully large. If only they hadn’t skipped his house or he had run into them at some point—the smallest earning from the lottery in the village was $130,000, and some won more than half a million dollars. If that wasn’t bad enough, the reminders of this alternative outcome will last for the rest of his life, or at least as long as he remains in Sodeto. Mr. Mitsotakis will be continually reminded of the tiny difference in events between his life now and what it would have him. If I were him, maybe I would simply move. This would probably decrease his happiness in the short term, but in the long run I think his life would be much better, and much less regretful.
So, next time you miss a flight, are first in line after tickets sell out, or get stuck in traffic after trying out an alternative route home, just remember, your situation may be frustrating, but it’s not like you lost half a million dollars and it is not as if you will keep on remembering this for the rest of your life.
The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves
Interesting. That’s remarkably similar to what Alain de Botton has remarked about envy ie: we are far more likely to be envious of someone when we feel that we could have been in their shoes.
Dan, having flown more than a million miles on average a year as a journalist, I could certainly relate to your post and your study. What I found even more compelling was how Mr. Costis Mitsotakis actually took the news of being the only villager without part of the winning ticket. The film maker, who seems to be content restoring an old barn on his property, is said to be quite happy and is even partaking in the village’s euphoria. He also has sold some of his land to other villagers who can now afford it, and is making a documentary about the incredible win bestowed upon his neighbors.
Sorry being funny in such a post but is a funny thing here in Greece. This guy is a Greek and he have the same name with our past priminister Konstantinos (kostis) Mitsotakis great hoodoo and bad luck bringer in our country!
What about putting regret about trivial things in perspective by being joyful that we’re not one of the many thousands who died accidentally (or not) the very same day. Remembering that life is as fragile as it is improbable could be a way to a serener life. But most of us are more concerned about their share in the lottery win, unfortunately.
The name Kostis Mitsotakis is a very funny reference for Greeks as Akis wrote! It is considered the epitomy of bad luck, usually referring to someone that brings bad luck onto others. Such a coincidence was suspicious and I had to check if the story was real. From a quick look, it seems real, much to my surprise
Another area where this comes up is in games and sports.
If you get beaten badly, you simply admit that your opponent was clearly much better than you, and hope that you’ll eventually improve to their level. But if you lose by a small margin, you feel that you were evenly matched, and are likely to beat yourself up over one or two individual mistakes that you made that cost the game.
My friends and I noticed a similar thing after 9/11: we felt worse for the delivery guy who died in the collapse who was not normally there, and happier for the person who worked there but whose car broke down that morning, making them late for work.
Doubtless there were people who were late for their meeting at the World Trade Centre on 9/11. Early or later we are always right on time! The universe unfolds as it should.
Dan,
Great post, a case of forced self evaluation in a scenario where sense of loss has looming effect. I suppose in the bigger picture it’s sn exercise on not sweating the small stuff; in otherwords it’s in the past and can’t be changed so you
might as well let it go or remain in torment. The quicker we are are releasing the feelings of loss
that we experience the quicker we can welcome
those positive ones that make themselves Present through equal but opposite circumstances.
Speaking of lottery winners. Historically there is a terrible track record for lottery winners. The social and economic impact for individuals is often dramatically bad. Those with debt problems, several years after winning or earning millions, return to being challenged with debt.
This reminds me of something I read in Richard Wiseman’s book, “The Luck Factor.”
A study found that people who won bronze medals in the Olympics were often happier than those who won silver. It worked like this: the 2nd place winners compared themselves with the 1st place winners, concentrating on how they came close to winning the gold but missed. The 3rd place winners, on the other hand, concentrated on the fact that they came close to not winning anything at all, and were happy to get a medal.
The guy didn’t risk anything, yet I’m sure at least a few of his neighbors give nice presents, take him out for meals or help out with paying bills. That’s a very nice return on his investment
@namowal: That study is Medvec, V. H., Madey, S., & Gilovich, T. (1995). When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medal winners. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 603-610. There’s a PDF at http://www.psych.cornell.edu/sec/pubPeople/tdg1/Medvec.Madey.Gilo.pdf
When I used to study postdecision affect, one of my standard demonstrations in talks was to tell people that there was a $5 bill taped under every chair in the room but one, and ask them to imagine how they’d feel if they were in the chair without the money (as compared, afterward, to the real situation – I had a $5 bill under a single chair and asked them to imagine how they’d feel if they didn’t get it). I guess sometimes life mirrors art.
Alan,
Yes! That’s the study.
The money under the chair demonstration is pretty clever. (Did the occupant of the money chair get to keep the five dollars?)
Poor Mr. Mitsotakis!. Even he did not “win” the lottery, he must feel like he “lost” something. He did not have got “something” to loose , but nevertheless he could feel like this just because all their neighbors won the lottery.
Excellent piece, and the comments too.
Alan Schwartz, enjoyed your website. Are you on twitter? Would like to follow your ramblings if so.
As you say, “the counterfactual looms incredibly and painfully large.” Regret is based on the assumption that the non-real could have been real, that things could be otherwise. What if this is not the case? From one of my Tweets: Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw have it completely backwards. It’s not “Anything That Can Happen, Does.” It’s “Anything That Does Happen, Can.”
Great site dude! I’ve been looking for something like this.
You focused on either getting a negative or missing out on a positive. I think these are common human biases, and should be regulated by their antitheses. I have found myself getting more and more nervous on airline flights as I age, and in an attempt to alleviate this, I called my dad from an airport and had him look up the total number of flights and total number of flight-related fatalities. The chances were something like 1 in 7 or 9 million. I was then able to think, “If I don’t feel exhilarated hope toward winning the lottery, I shouldn’t feel exhilarating fear about dying on a plane.”
I will keep this learning close, Dan. Thanks for the perspective-building anecdote.
A Dutch television program once broadcasted a variation to this theme: they had an actor ask people to let him skip a place in a row at the supermarket, because he only had 1 or 2 items. At the counter, the cashier told the actor he was the one-millionth visitor and the manager presented him with flowers and a cheque. Reactions differed. The people who gave up their place most of the times reacted with regret and sometimes even tried to claim the prize.
Dan,
Have you seen the movie ‘saving Ned Devine? its about a small village who wins a huge lottery. You’ll love it!
As empirically tested (The upside of irrationality’s “On Adaptation”), if Mr. Mitsotakis stays in Sodeto, he is most likely to adapt to his newer and wealthier neighborhood and may be he would soon start considering himself lucky to be saved from the banes of wealth.
A hypothetical and radical scenario: Say Mr. Mitsotakis painfully moves out of Sodeto to a far away city to get out of his regret pangs, and Sodeto suffers a natural disaster like earthquake/flood destroying the properties/assets owned by people (pardon me Sodeto inhabitants for cooking this scenario up), then:
1. Will Mr. Mitsotakis be relieved of his regret for good?
2. Will Mr. Mitsotakis feel happy that he did not win the lottery. Will this happiness be more than the happiness he would have felt if he would have won the lottery?
What is happiness anyway? Perhaps missing the lottery win enabled him to reflect upon his own perspective and realise certain features that money can not buy. Regrets always depend upon hindsight and the two words “What if?”
Thank you.