Comments on: THE CURIOUS PARADOX OF `OPTIMISM BIAS’ http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/ My Irrational Life Mon, 06 Sep 2010 15:44:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Joanna http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4021 Joanna Sun, 25 Oct 2009 01:09:36 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4021 Eh, the ol' question of if the glass is half-full or half-empty... It's pretty redundant, since it's going to be both either way. But I guess people would like to think it was more full, which is folly. Eh, the ol’ question of if the glass is half-full or half-empty…
It’s pretty redundant, since it’s going to be both either way. But I guess people would like to think it was more full, which is folly.

]]> By: Neil http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4020 Neil Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:55:43 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4020 Maybe people were asking you if you were optimistic about the potentially increased stature of your field of research! The conceptually clean and pristine fantasies that guide pre-behavioural economics ring hollower than ever now. But I think people will still cling to those fantasies as an expression of precisely this optimism bias - they want to remain optimistic about their beliefs that their impoverished models are actually adequate bases for policy decisions... Maybe people were asking you if you were optimistic about the potentially increased stature of your field of research! The conceptually clean and pristine fantasies that guide pre-behavioural economics ring hollower than ever now. But I think people will still cling to those fantasies as an expression of precisely this optimism bias – they want to remain optimistic about their beliefs that their impoverished models are actually adequate bases for policy decisions…

]]> By: akshay bhat http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4019 akshay bhat Tue, 22 Sep 2009 22:44:02 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4019 isn't optimism bias is something we learned from history? over last few years things have always become better, life expectancy has increased,overall human condition has increased thus isn't optimism bias kind of learnt phenomena. finally risk is matter of personal philosophy, in any case we all are gonna die someday. :D isn’t optimism bias is something we learned from history? over last few years things have always become better, life expectancy has increased,overall human condition has increased thus isn’t optimism bias kind of learnt phenomena.
finally risk is matter of personal philosophy, in any case we all are gonna die someday. :D

]]> By: Tom http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4018 Tom Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:56:09 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4018 Wow... a depressed person actually has a more realistic outlook. That's a pretty sobering thought. Wow… a depressed person actually has a more realistic outlook. That’s a pretty sobering thought.

]]> By: AnonymousGerbil http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4017 AnonymousGerbil Sat, 12 Sep 2009 11:37:42 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4017 "Overoptimism works the other way. Imagine a society in which no one would take on the risk of creating startups, developing new medications, or opening new businesses. We know most new enterprises fail in the first few years. Yet they crop up all the time, sometimes jump-starting entirely new sectors." It seems to me that it might not be just overoptimism, but also need to manage financially (can't live without money) that is driving people to pursue start-ups and new businesses over optimistically. So, this begs a question: Would people be as overly optimistic if there would not be that financial pressure forcing them to do things? “Overoptimism works the other way. Imagine a society in which no one would take on the risk of creating startups, developing new medications, or opening new businesses. We know most new enterprises fail in the first few years. Yet they crop up all the time, sometimes jump-starting entirely new sectors.”

It seems to me that it might not be just overoptimism, but also need to manage financially (can’t live without money) that is driving people to pursue start-ups and new businesses over optimistically.

So, this begs a question: Would people be as overly optimistic if there would not be that financial pressure forcing them to do things?

]]> By: David Merkel http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4016 David Merkel Tue, 08 Sep 2009 05:22:53 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4016 Think of it as the "Hands on the Wheel" phenomenon. We feel safe going at faster speeds than we would be comfortable with if an average driver who we did not know, were driving. If we think we have control over the risks involved, we take more risks, not fewer. Think of it as the “Hands on the Wheel” phenomenon. We feel safe going at faster speeds than we would be comfortable with if an average driver who we did not know, were driving. If we think we have control over the risks involved, we take more risks, not fewer.

]]> By: David Merkel http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4540 David Merkel Tue, 08 Sep 2009 05:22:53 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4540 Think of it as the "Hands on the Wheel" phenomenon. We feel safe going at faster speeds than we would be comfortable with if an average driver who we did not know, were driving. If we think we have control over the risks involved, we take more risks, not fewer. Think of it as the “Hands on the Wheel” phenomenon. We feel safe going at faster speeds than we would be comfortable with if an average driver who we did not know, were driving. If we think we have control over the risks involved, we take more risks, not fewer.

]]> By: David Merkel http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-6343 David Merkel Tue, 08 Sep 2009 05:22:53 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-6343 Think of it as the "Hands on the Wheel" phenomenon. We feel safe going at faster speeds than we would be comfortable with if an average driver who we did not know, were driving. If we think we have control over the risks involved, we take more risks, not fewer. Think of it as the “Hands on the Wheel” phenomenon. We feel safe going at faster speeds than we would be comfortable with if an average driver who we did not know, were driving. If we think we have control over the risks involved, we take more risks, not fewer.

]]> By: Daily Links #94 | CloudKnow http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4015 Daily Links #94 | CloudKnow Mon, 07 Sep 2009 17:56:05 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4015 [...] Dan Ariely: The curious paradox of “Optimism Bias” [...] [...] Dan Ariely: The curious paradox of “Optimism Bias” [...]

]]> By: Moledina http://danariely.com/2009/09/05/the-curious-paradox-of-optimism-bias/#comment-4014 Moledina Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:03:50 +0000 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?p=671#comment-4014 You say that "Depressed people tend to show a smaller optimism bias. They ..have a more accurate take on reality–perceptions more in line with what actuaries figure." Assuming that actuaries are closer in line to that rational agents of some economic models, have economists inadvertently assumed people are depressed? After all we are the dismal science. Always enjoy your blog. You say that “Depressed people tend to show a smaller optimism bias. They ..have a more accurate take on reality–perceptions more in line with what actuaries figure.” Assuming that actuaries are closer in line to that rational agents of some economic models, have economists inadvertently assumed people are depressed? After all we are the dismal science.

Always enjoy your blog.

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