Comments on: Medicine: A Lesson In Efficient Markets

By: Puneet

Puneet — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 07:33:12 +0000

I agree with my fellow commentators. Very few people claim that markets are rational, although Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) does claim this in a round about way (but you won’t see the word rational). A good way to look at financial markets is to say that it is close to being a brownian motion, with near-perfect randomness, i.e. there is no easy free lunch.

By: Jane

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By: Heel

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By: Kir

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By: Half Sigma

Half Sigma — Mon, 26 May 2008 14:40:26 +0000

There are a lot of religious beliefs in the field of medicine. Probably, because it involves Life and Death, people are unable to think rationally.

There isn’t even any solid evidence that eating cholesterol is bad for you, but there’s a multi-billion dollar anti-cholesterol industry around an unproven concept.

By: Sunny

Sunny — Mon, 26 May 2008 08:16:45 +0000

Do you mean that with all this data from medical trials and studies, we actually believe that the medicine market is Rational. And that risk-taking in the stock market, especially in the absence of such supporting data makes it an irrational? market – I didn’t quite get the argument in your last two paragraphs.

And how useful is all this medical data, if the consensus in the medical market fluctuates unpredictably, instead of converging towards an optimal solution? Is there truly a lesson in this for understanding the stock-market?

PS: This is my first comment here. I thoroughly enjoy reading your posts. Very interesting work Dan.

By: Gindi

Gindi — Sun, 25 May 2008 14:13:02 +0000

The irrationality about health care pervades all participants : patients ignoring exercise, indulging in smoking, drugs, alchohol,avoidable stress,non compliance, ignoring ill effects of high calorie/high fat diet,obesity etc.
Physicians have their bad apples doing unnecessary tests,procedures,declining time spent with patients,defensive medicine,practicing beyond level of expertise for fear of losing patient to consultants, selling procedures highlighting benefits and hiding side effects ,poor self policing etc.
Lawyers have their bad apples inciting lawsuits with you don’t pay any money till we get money for you ads, taking on frivilous law suits, and making physicians practice defensive medicine adding billions to the health care costs, making them look at every patient as potential plaintiff thus breaking down physician/patient relationship,etc. Insurance companies are another story

By: Erik

Erik — Sun, 25 May 2008 02:40:51 +0000

Warren Buffet has become the richest person in the world because he was able to recognize *when* the market was irrational.